Saturday, July 7, 2012

The Divorce Process Made Easy

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Divorce has many effects and besides the legal aspects, there are other things that need to be dealt with are so many couple that are caught up with divorce issues and do not know how to go about the whole process. There are some couples who allow the hurting emotion to get a hold of them and they do some stupid things. One of the grave mistakes you can ever do is posting about your marital problems on social networks. This will not do you any good in any case this will just fuel the process and make it worse. Once the information is out in the public, you will give your children a hard time while growing. They will be constantly be teased by their playmates which might really damage their social growth. While it is very easy to find a good Phoenix divorce lawyer, a couple that has small children has another obstacle to deal with. For children, irrespective the issues at hand, they will not understand why their parents have to split up. It is not advisable to speak ill of the other spouse to your children. In as much as the whole process is quite emotional, control your emotions when your kids are present. Find friend to vent out your anger to or a close relative but not in the presence of your children. Most lawyers are actually concerned about the wellbeing of the clients and in most cases they will try to talk some sense to the client so as to establish if it is possible to avert the divorce process. However, if the client is adamant, the attorney plays the role that they are hired to. You need to be very sure of what you are getting yourself into before starting the divorce process.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

My Favorite Nissan Dealers

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Finding a Nissan Dealer is pretty easy these days with the internet. There are tons of websites that hold thousands of inventory listings for awesome Nissan models. Looking good in a new car is probably one of the best feelings in the world. You are feeling very confident and proud of your purchase, and why shouldn't you be? I have quite a few reasons that Nissan is my favorite vehicle. The way it looks, drives and feels are imperative to my decision. Nissan has always felt like a magnificent car, and looks fantastic as well. If you are new to California or are just looking for a new dealership, I would look into either the Riverside Nissan dealership or La Quinta Nissan. Both are very professional, reputable and established dealerships and will have trained salespeople available to help you decide on your new or used car. I first moved to California a couple years ago and had absolutely no idea as to where to go for a new car. My old one was running out of both miles and steam, so after I got settled into my home, I researched a couple different dealerships that could possibly help me. The different dealerships that I decided to visit were Riverside Nissan and the La Quinta dealerships (hence the title of this article). When visiting Riverside, I noticed that their inventory lot was very vast. There was a great selection of both new and used cars available and of course I took my time looking at both sides. I had never been able to decide whether a new car or used car would be better, but I was able to decide that used vehicles would fit my lifestyle better. I mean, I don't buy cars for their appearance or to "pimp them out". A car for me is just to get to work and run errands, so basically anything that wasn't about to blow up suited me just fine. I ended up going with a used Nissan Altima and I am so happy with my decision. Both Riverside and La Quinta Nissan had fine businesses, La Quinta Nissan had a very nice list of specials and deals they were offering. That is another important thing for me, because when I choose a dealership, I want to make sure that it is not only affordable, but that it is a financially smart decision as well. Regardless of the dealership, I absolutely love my Nissan and I look absolutely fabulous in it. You should try out the feeling! I never thought a car could give me confidence, but Nissan proved me wrong in that regard.

Rolex Submariners For Sale

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If you look online for a Rolex submariner for sale, I'm sure you will find a lot of conflicting ads. Some will be legitimate, but it's the scams that you need to watch out for. Rolex scammers are out there and are unfortunately waiting to take your money. This means you need to be extra careful in trusting people and never sending money without seeing certified papers or anything like that.  If you think your time with your beloved Rolex brand watch has run up, you may consider how to sell watches. Although it isn't quite rocket science, when it comes the time to trade in watches,  it can be quite difficult getting the whole process in order. There is a lot of thought that needs to go into preparing both yourself and your customers for the whole ordeal. It wouldn't be so difficult if there weren't any scammers out there attempting and successfully selling fake Rolex watches, but since that isn't the case it is imperative that you calm the consumers anxiety and put them at ease. When you need to sell Rolex brand watches which are very high-end and high quality, it is important that you understand how important the whole deal is. Customers and interested consumers will be trusting you with very large amounts of money, and they want to make sure that they are getting what they paid for, which are legitimate Rolex watches. Don't be put off when you receieve doubt about the legitimacy of your Rolex watches. This is common, and for a very good reason. People need to be concerned and watchful of where they spend their hard earned money and make sure that the sellers that they are dealing with are looking out for their best interest. Make sure that you have the correct documents in order, including the original receipt and make copies of all other paperwork including model number. If that doesn't satisfy them, than go the extra mile and get a personal signature from an official at Rolex stating that your specific watch is indeed a true Rolex. After doing all these things, also make sure to take great pictures as well. Good pictures can often be the deciding factor in a deal. People want to really see the product, get high definition close-ups and really fall in love with the product. Hire a professional photographer and make your Rolex watch stand out from the rest! Let your customers know that you mean business and that you really want them to enjoy and anticpate their purchase. Your watch should truly be the best watch possible and their only option for purchase! Selling really isn't all that hard and I hope that I didn't scare you from it. There aren't that many bad people out there, and most people just really want a Rolex. Trust your instincts and use common sense. 

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Earnings Play on Research in Motion: The Reverse Iron Condor

Research in Motion reports earnings on Thursday, and we think that there is potential for this stock to move a lot in either direction on the earnings report. The lingering bulls may be on their last leg on this one if they do not see something in this report that inspires them. At the same time, any news of anything bullish at all could send this one flying after its been sold off so hard. Either way, we expect Research in Motion to move a lot post-earnings. Is there any way to take advantage of a stock that may move violently without knowing the direction…yes.
Typically, individuals can use options to maximize gains in times like this. One great way to use options is by doing a reverse iron condor. By buying a bear put spread and buying bull call spread, you can know exactly how much you can lose, have an inexpensive position, and profit on a violent move in either direction. The reverse iron condor only loses on both sides if the stock does not move strongly. If the stock moves to the upside, the bull call spread will increase in value while the bear put spread goes to 0. The reverse happens on a violent move downwards.
We did some research on RIMM to see what types of moves it has made in the past ten years in the December earnings report. The stock has averaged a move of 12.71% from the day prior to earnings to the day after. The largest move was 53%. The smallest move was 1.7%, and the stock had only two years where the move was less than 5%.
So how to set up this trade?
We will look to set it up on Wednesday, and we are not sure exactly where RIMM will be trading on Wednesday. Let's estimate its trading around 16.50.
Step 1: We need to buy a bear put spread. We will buy the 16 put and sell the 15 put. Currently, that is trading at 0.40.
Step 2: We need to buy a bull call spread. We will buy the 17.50 call and sell the 19 call. Currently, that is trading at 0.16.
Now, we can configure our breakeven points by looking at the net debit between the two spreads at 0.56.
We subtract that from our bought put and add it to our bought call to find our breakeven points. That would mean we would breakeven on a downward move to 15.44 or a move to 18.06. That spread would be much closer at 16.50. Even with the spread at where it is, that would be a move of just at 5% to the downside and a move of 9.5% to the upside. When RIMM has gone up, it has never gone up less than 10%. On the way down, twice it moved over 5% out of four times. According to history, this trade should make us money. The best part of the trade is that it is very cheap.
The reverse iron condor is a great way to make money on Research in Motion (RIMM) earnings.

Good Investing,

The Oxen Group

Friday, October 7, 2011

Will Natural Gas Become the Leading Energy Source? A Bullish Outlook on the Industry

Petroleum and coal have for years fueled the United States economy, providing just less than two-thirds of our energy consumption in 2009. Going forward, much talk is made about moving towards clean energy sources, like wind and solar. These are speculative fields that, in my view, are not too practical from a cost perspective.

While wind and solar energy developments remain very much works in progress, I find that the natural gas industry is ready to go. It is anticipated that the known reserves will last us more than a century. In addition to being much more environmentally-friendly than our two leading energy sources in terms of CO2 emissions, natural gas is also in America's best interest as a matter of security. Fracking critics become increasingly questionable as economic dependency on hostile nations grows. 

But yet natural gas provided less than a quarter of 2009 energy consumption. There is tremendous growth potential. As a surveyor of several natural gas sites, I have seen the demand for this energy source from automobile manufacturing plans to the hungry wildcatters setting up sites. In this type of climate, the shift to natural gas provides ideal risk asymmetry. The question then naturally follows, which players of the industry should one invest in?

There were a few companies that I highlighted elsewhere that could outperform their peers. I provide some valuation and competitive analysis in the links below:

Chesapeake Energy (CHK): my financial commentary can be found here;
El Paso (EP): my financial commentary can be found here; and
BP plc (BP): my financial commentary can be found here

Of these three energy companies, I find myself most bullish, by far, on CHK. The natural gas company is diversified in several lucrative plays. It is also more structurally exposed to "striking a fortune" than competitors given its tremendous scale and strong acquisition growth capability. The market currently values the company at around 10x forward earnings, which I find to be a considerable discount to the cumulative intrinsic value of its plays. To the extent that it is well invested in other cheaper sources, Chesapeake is at once a safe investment and a lucrative one, in my opinion.

So, in opening up the discussion, I would like to know what your thoughts are on energy and the industry's undervalued competitors...


Thursday, October 6, 2011

Free Stock Analysis

BlackRock Has Reached Its Bottom, Has Strong Fundamentals

Along with other asset management firms, BlackRock (BLK) has seen a precipitous stock decline since the start of 2010, with its value down by more than one third. The financial corporation now trades at 12x and 10.6x past and forward earnings, respectively, and offers an appealing dividend yield of 3.74%. Despite this attractive valuation, many investors are concerned about BlackRock's beta of 1.56 and macro headwinds. Proportionate client concerns...
The Natural Gas Boom To Fuel El Paso's Growth
In an earlier article that I published, I wrote about my bullish expectations for the natural gas industry, focusing on Chesapeake Energy (CHK). While I view Chesapeake's immeasurable upside as a manifestation for the industry as a whole, it is important to also note the smaller players that could eventually end up major winners.
El Paso (EP) is an energy company that operates two segments: pipeline and exploration & production. Management recently decided to... 
Pentair: Undervalued Given Market Expansion and CPT Acquisition
Industrial manufacturer Pentair (PNR) has strong secular emerging market opportunities that will be enhanced by the Clean Process Technologies (CPT) acquisition, in my view, beyond what management was originally expecting. Integration of the buyout has come smoothly and revealed more synergistic value than the earlier-cited $20M and $10M worth of revenue and cost improvements by 2014. Indeed, CPT is presenting considerable cross-selling opportunities for Pentair in the emerging markets...
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Strong Yen Will Not Deter Honda's Growth
Amidst concerns over yen appreciation and macroeconomic stagnation in North America and Europe, many investors are understandably hesitant about Honda Motor (HMC). The automobile manufacturer has seen its stock price decline by more than one quarter for the year and is now trading near its 52 week low. I find myself in agreement with other analysts that the market has been too...
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Southwest-AirTran Merger Will Fuel Long-Term Value Creation
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is trading at a tremendous discount to intrinsic value considering the recent precipitous stock decline. Since Southwest completed its acquisition of AirTran in May 2, 2011, the stock has been down by more than a third. By the close of October 3, 2011, it was trading at its 52-week low of $7.35. What exactly is going on?...
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Best Buy Faces Margin Troubles, Pressing Challenges
The consumer electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY) has seen its stock price decline precipitously due to investor concerns about poor competitive position, macro challenges, and decreased consumer expenditures. Shareholder value is down by more than one third since the start of the year and the stock is trading around its 52- week low, less than half of the 52-week high. With multiples of 7.5 and 6.2 for past and forward earnings, respectively, the company is just slightly undervalued by most analyst estimates. Given the beta of 1.28...
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J.C. Penney is Overvalued In A Challenging Industry
Having brought activist investors Bill Ackman and Steve Roth on the board and elected Apple (AAPL) store genius Ron Johnson as CEO, J.C. Penney (JCP) must now work on tangibly proving its fundaments and creating value. The market has already factored in these catalysts, in my view, and is now waiting to see if the results accord...

Bears At Family Dollar, Retailer Considers Wrong Alternatives
Discount retailer Family Dollar Stores (FDO) recently named Edward Garden of Trian Partners to the board under the agreement that his fund both withdraw its hostile bid and not acquire more than 9.9% of the outstanding stock without board approval. Trian currently owns 8.29% of the stock, while fellow activist investor Pershing Square owns 9.23%. Bill Ackman believes that the company is...
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Despite Budget Cuts, Lockheed Martin Will Outperform
With mounting fear over budget cuts to the Department of Defense, it has become clear that Lockheed Martin (LMT) and other security providers are destined for higher volatility as the trigger date approaches. While this will make for an obvious case study in political arbitrage, value investing is also relevant given the company's attractive multiples and jaw dropping dividend. The stock is currently trading at...
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Expedia: Undervalued And Well Positioned
With a 21.7% discount to its 52 week high and strong fundamentals, Expedia (EXPE) appears at first to be an attractive value play. The stock trades at 16.5x and 11.6x past and forward earnings, respectively, which is well below top competitor (PCLN). At the same time, the stock only offers a dividend yield of 1.1% and is currently rated by analysts more towards a "hold" than a "buy." I expect that the company...
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Saturday, September 17, 2011

Kellogg Company (K)

Cereal-maker Kellogg has created a wide array of popular breakfast foods over the years. Despite their powerful brand, they are still remain behind General Mills and Kraft Foods.

Using a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 10.4%, I find that the company is currently fairly priced by the market. On a last note: while I believe that its cost cutting measures and favorable margins are attractive, I find that the company is not doing enough to advertise and increase market share.